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Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts
Authors:Thomas R Stewart  Cynthia M Lusk
Abstract:A decomposition of the Brier skill score shows that the performance of judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental predictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environment and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliability of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for research on the forecasting process. Selected literature addressing each component is reviewed, and implications for improving judgmental forecasting are discussed.
Keywords:Judgmental forecasting  Brier skill score  Lens model equation  Bias Reliability
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