预测模型参数的指数平滑估计法及其应用的进一步研究

首先提出指数平滑技术在预测模型参数估计中应用的原理，其次研究指数平滑参数估计法的渐近最优性，最后，应用指数平滑技术给出修正指数曲线预测模型参数估计及组合预测确定权重的一类新方法．

A Further Study on the Exponential Smoothing Estimation Method for Parameters of Forecasting Model and Its Application

First, this paper presents the applicational principle for the parameter estimation of the forecasting model with exponential smoothing technique. Then, it studies the asymptotic optimal property of the exponential smooth parameter extimation. At last, using the exponential smoothing technique, it puts forward a new method to estimate the parameters of revised exponential curve and decide the weights of combinatory forecasting.