基于组合预测模型的区域政策经济效应评价

针对现阶段区域政策评价存在目标不确定、影响因素难以量化的问题,采用政策实施-投影对比分析法进行政策经济效应评价。首先建立以地区生产总值、地方财政一般预算收入、城镇固定资产投资、社会消费品零售总额及进出口总值为指标的政策经济效应评价指标体系,然后利用熵权法和组合预测模型预测政策实施阶段的经济运行状况,最后构建政策的多指标综合评价模型,并进行评分比较和分析。实例分析表明:黑龙江省东部煤电化基地建设政策具有正效应且效应在逐步增大;该政策在增加城镇固定资产方面效果明显;东部四煤城的发展增长水平高于省级发展水平。该结果为黑龙江省区域经济政策制定和改进提供了有益参考。

Economic effect evaluation of region policy based on combination forecast model

Aimed at eliminating the target uncertainty and influence quantization difficulty,as revealed by the present regional economic policy evaluation,this paper discusses the research on economic effect evaluation of policy using the method of policy implementation-projection comparative analysis.The method consists of firstly developing design index system of economic effect evaluation of policy which involves gross domestic product,general budgetary revenue by region,fixed assets of construction in urban area,total volume of retail sales of social consumer goods and total volume of imports and exports,secondly using the entropy method and the combination forecast model to predict the economic situation of the policy implementation phase,and lastly performing multi-index comprehensive policy evaluation model for the scores and analysis.Evaluating the policy implementation of eastern coal-electricity base in Heilongjiang Province using evaluation method indicates： the policy on construction of eastern coal-electricity base yields a positive effect of an increasing momentum,and proves very effective in increasing fixed assets of construction in urban area,with the result of a higher growth level of six cities in eastern Heilongjiang Province than the other cities in the province.This result can provide helpful references for working out and improving the economic policy of Heilongjiang Province.