1303年洪洞大地震的启迪

1303年9月25日的洪洞地震，是我国有史记载的第一次8级地震．本文把地震作为灾害的一个种类统筹考虑，运用统计学方法研究了1281年至1326年45年间山西全省的灾害资料，进行了灾害时序分析．认为此期为一个多灾时段，其顺序为灾害频发—信号震—平静—灾害频发—主震—余震—地震与其他灾害并存——其他灾害为主．分析了地震的空间与分布规律和地震的震源迁移等问题．研究发现，地震绝大部分发生在太阳黑子活动低发期，其他灾害多发生在太阳黑子活动高发期，其他灾害频发可作为地震发生的环境背景；1303年地震有一个完整的序列．分析认为，近些年来是太阳黑子活动高发期，山西干害与其他灾害较为严重频繁，若参照1303年地震活动背景，是否预示着山西台背斜未来将有一个活跃期，值得注意．

The Enlightenment of 1303 Hongtong Macroquake

The Hongtogn earthquake ouurred on september 25,1303 is the fist M8 quake in the historical seismological record of China. We would plan as a whole to consider the earthquake as a kind of disaster and think that it is a disasterous period (from 1281 to 1326), using satistical analytical method to study the disaster data for the forty-five years of Shanxi provmce and making a lot of disaster sequence analyses. Its odrder is the following: disaster taking place frequently -signal shaking- quiet-disaster taking place frequently -main shock-aftershock-earthquake coexistence with other disasters-a majority of other disasters. This paper has analysed a great many of problems, such as the spatial distribution law of the earthquake and the move of the seismic source. It seems that the earthquake mostly occurred in the low-incidence season of sunspot activity, while other disasters often occurred in the high-incidence season. So the other disasters occurred frequently can be regarded as the evironmental background. Moreover, the earthquake in 1303 has an intact array. We also can conclude that there will be a high-incidence season of sunspot in recent years when the drought and other disasters are quite serious and frequent. Consulting the seismic activity background for 1303 years, it is north noticing whether there would be an active period for Shanxi anteklise.