售电量的模糊预测

售电量中,长期预测是电力企业经济分析的重要环节,是计划、决策的基础。 影响售电量的因素很多,也很复杂,如:工农业总产值、城市人口,家用电器的饱和程度,售电政策等。 本文把售电量及其影响因素视作模糊系统,用模糊回归修正模型预测售电量,通过相对误差检验,精度很高。

The Fuzzy Forecast of the Quantity of Sold Electricity

In this paper, the fuzzy regression model is deduced from the dounded and closed fuzzy number. With the help of the fitting and the measure of fuzziness, the determination of parameters of fuzzy numbers is changed into how to deal with the solving linear programming. After the residual fitting by triangle function,we get a modified model at last. And this model is in some area applied to forecast the quantity of sold electricity. The result is rather accurate.