茂兰自然保护区耕地人口承载力研究

茂兰国家级自然保护区土地总面积２２×１０４ｈａ，耕地６４０ｈａ，人口８５４７人，人均耕地００７５ｈａ。保护区１１个旱作土种（１２１２ｈａ）粮食生产力可产玉米７４７１４ｔ；３５个水稻土种（７７６３亩，保灌面积３０６７％）的生产力是３７５５０７ｔ，即全区的粮食现实生产力为４５０２２１ｔ。扣除应当交的国家定购粮８５％，人均净占粮食４８２ｋｇ。按国家小康标准人均占有粮食４００ｋｇ和温饱标准人均占有粮食３５０ｋｇ来看，人口承载力分别是１０２９９人和１１７７０人，目前人口土地承载有余。但总人口在不断增加，农业人口也在不断增加，而耕地不会增加，如按目前的生产力水平和投入计算，按小康标准，２０２０年人口将超载；按温饱标准，２０４０年人口将超载

POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY OF THE CULTIVATED LAND IN THE MAOLAN NATURAL RESERVE

The Maolan National Natural Reserve with an area of 22×104 ha in total,contains 640 ha of cultivated land and 8 547 in population.About 99% farmers only occupy 3% of the land,which gives rise to a great conflict between population and land.Potential production of grain at present situation in the natual reserve is 74714 t for maize from 11 types of dry crop land 1212 ha and 3 75507 t for rice from 35 types of rice land 5175 ha 3067% of irregative area),i.e. 450221 t in total.Regarding 85% of purchase by the state,average occupancy of grain per person is 482 kg.According to the state criterion of Xiaokang (middle riches,400 kg/person) and Wenbao (lower riches,350 kg/person),the population carrying capacity of the cultivated land in the natural reserve is respectively 10 299 and 11 770 persons.The pressure is under the capacity at present.However,the population is increasing with unchangable land use and the farmers are also more and more with limited cultivated land.Under the present productive ability and condition,the population will be over the capacity at the Xiaokang in 2 020 and at the Wenbao in 2 040.