基于粗集的水文单要素预报模型

基于粗集理论,应用水文系列自身的历史资料作为预报因子,建立了水文单要素分级预报模式.在建立预报模式的过程中,由属性重要度和规则出现频度最大原则确定问题的最小规则集,即预报模式集,提出应用预报模式集对预报对象的支持强度最大原则作预报决策.建立的模式经应用于大伙房水库年径流预报,表明应用粗集理论提取的预报模式集,能有效地描述预报因子与预报量间的强非线性映射关系,具有较高的判别率;粗集预报模式由简单的决策规则组成,易于理解与使用.

A forecast model of hydrology single element based on rough set

A hydrology single element level forecast model is brought forward based on rough set theory.The model uses the historical data of hydrology series itself as forecast factors.The minimal rule set,i.e.,forecast pattern set,is achieved according to the principle of attribute significance and the maximal appearing frequency of rules.A principle of maximal support strength of the forecast pattern set for forecasting object is put forward and used to forecast in the model.The model is used to forecast annual run...