产业结构调整和碳排放量耦合分析——以上海为例

为准确把握产业结构调整和碳排放量的动态关系,通过构建灰色系统理论模型,选取上海市2001—2011年度碳排放量和三次产业的产值,运用灰色关联度的研究方法,具体分析了产业结构调整和碳排放量之间的关联关系.首先计算出上海市2001—2011年的碳排放量,然后结合这11年的三次产业产值,运用灰色关联度分析法分析了两者之间的关联关系.结果表明,上海第三产业和碳排放量的关联度最大,第一产业和碳排放量的关联度最小.此外,结合能耗强度的相关研究成果对结论进行分析,分别从政府、企业和社会的角度对上海市发展低碳经济提出了建议.

Correlation Analysis of Industrial Structure Adjustment and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Shanghai

This paper computes the correlation between three economy sectors and carbon dioxide emission in Shanghai by Gray Relational Analysis based on the data for the year 2001 to 2011. First the carbon dioxide emission for the year 2001 to 2011 is computed,and its correlation with the tertiary industry is analyzed with Grey Relational Analysis method. The results show that the correlation coefficient between tertiary industry and carbon emission is the biggest while that between primary industry and carbon emission is the smallest. The paper is concluded with political, economic as well as social suggestions to foster a low-carbon economy in Shanghai based on energy cost intensity analysis.