鄂南贫困丘陵山区耕地时空变化及驱动力分析

耕地变化是区域土地利用变化的核心，其变化和流向反映了社会经济的基本态势．利用鄂南贫困丘陵山区的统计资料，对本区近50年来的耕地数量变化的时空特征进行了分析研究，并应用相关分析法、主成分分析法和回归分析法对近10年来鄂南丘陵山区耕地资源变化的驱动力因子进行了定量研究，建立驱动因子回归模型．结果表明：鄂南丘陵山区耕地总体上呈下降趋势，北部平原丘陵地区下降快，南部丘陵山区下降慢；近10年来，鄂南贫困丘陵山区耕地资源变化主要受经济因子、人口、房地产政策及耕地开发强度的影响，特别是经济、人口因子强烈影响耕地面积的变化，是耕地变化的主要驱动因子．这为合理地利用和保护耕地提供了科学依据．

Study on Spatial- temporal Change of the Cultivated Land and Its Driving Forces in South Mound Region of Hubei Province

Change of cultivated land is core of land cover change. The change and change trend reflects basic state of economy. The data obtaining form statistical sources is used to analyze the spatial - temporal change of cultivated land and driving forces by using relevance analysis , principal component analysis and regression analysis. The result indicates that (1) the cultivated land is reduced in south of Hubei province and the cultivated land of the north is more fast reduced than that of the south,(2) the growth of population and economic development are dominical factors for change of cultivated land. The result will offer reference to protection cultivated land in the south of Hubei province.