| 黄淮海平原历史旱涝灾害的时间序列分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李海萍 彭望录. 黄淮海平原历史旱涝灾害的时间序列分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1995, 31(4): 549-552 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李海萍 彭望录 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学资源与环境科学系 |
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| 摘 要： | 选用全国自然灾害历史数据库中黄淮海平原地区的旱涝灾害等级数据，运用时间序列分析方法，建立了该地区旱涝灾害的自回归－－移动平均混合模型（ＡＲＭＡ模型），并根据所建模型对旱涝灾害进行了后验预报，结果表明，用ＡＲＭＡ模型做年际旱涝变化趋势预报是有潜力的。
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| 关 键 词： | 黄淮海平原 旱涝灾害 时间序列分析 ARMA模型 |
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL FLOOD AND DROUGHT DISASTER ON HUANGHUAIHAI PLAIN |
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| Li Haiping,Peng wanglu,Zhao Ji. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL FLOOD AND DROUGHT DISASTER ON HUANGHUAIHAI PLAIN[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 1995, 31(4): 549-552 |
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| Authors: | Li Haiping Peng wanglu Zhao Ji |
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| Abstract: | Using the grade data of flood and drought disasters in Huanghuaihai plain region from the national natural disaster historical database,this paper adopted a time series analysis method,which was building an auto-regression moving-average(ARMA) model about flood and drought disasters.Also,the posterior forecast was made for flood and drought disaster according to the model.Result shown that using the ARMA model is potential for forecst the annual trend change of the flood and drought disaster. |
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| Keywords: | Huanghuaihai plain flood and drought disaster time series analysis ARMA model |
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