基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力分析

为了评估中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力,利用长期能源替代规划系统(long range energy a lternatives p lann ingsystem,LEAP)软件建立了LEAPCh ina模型。用该模型模拟了3个不同情景下中国钢铁行业2000—2030年CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力。根据减排成本评估其可行性并识别重点减排技术。模拟结果表明,相对基准情景,当前政策情景和新政策情景下的年均CO2减排量分别为0.51亿t和1.07亿t,所需要的总的额外资金投入分别为93.4亿美元和809.49亿美元。因此,钢铁行业具有一定的CO2减排潜力,实现减排主要通过行业结构调整和技术进步。如果目前制定的政策措施得到有效实施,那么可以以较低的成本实现减排;但是进一步的减排受制于高昂的成本。

Abatement potential of CO2 emissions from China's iron and steel industry based on LEAP

A model was developed based on the LEAP(long range energy alternatives planning system) software to assess the CO_2 abatement potential of China's iron and steel industry from 2000 to 2030 according to cost information.The results show that the average CO_2 abatement for the recent policy scenario and the new policy scenario,compared with the reference scenario,are 51 Mt/a and 107 Mt/a,respectively.Total incremental costs are 9.34 billion and 80.95 billion US dollars,respectively.Therefore,China's iron and steel industry has a large CO_2 abatement potential which will depend on structure adjustments and technology advances in the industry.Implementation of sustainable development policies can result in low cost CO_2 abatement,but more abatement will be very expensive.