期望值分析与效用分析的比较研究

从效用的内涵及其基本特性入手，利用效用曲线将决策者分为三类，即风险规避者、风险偏好者和风险中性者(即风险理性人)；进而分析了期望值分析决策与效用分析决策的内在关系，即期望值分析实际上是风险中性者决策的依据，而效用分析是不同类型决策者的决策依据，对风险中性者来说，效用分析就转化为期望值分析(因此效用分析涵盖了期望值分析)；最后，从预测的价值角度得出了效用分析优于期望值分析的结论，并用具体案例实证了利用效用函数进行决策的科学性。

Study on the Comparison of Utility Analysis and Expectation Value Analysis

Based on the meaning of utility and its basic features, the paper takes advantage of utility curves to classify decision-makers into three categories, i.e., risk evader, risk liker and risk rational person. In addition, the inner relationship of decision-makings between expectation value analysis and utility analysis is derived, i.e., for the risk rational person, utility analysis is translated into expectation value analysis. From the viewpoint of forecast, utility analysis outperforms expectation value analysis. Finally, the validity of decision-making by means of utility function is demonstrated by detailed examples.