供热系统负荷预测方法研究

供暖系统是一个集非线性、不确定性、时变性于一身的大系统,利用传统方法很难对城市供暖负荷进行准确预测.根据室内空气热平衡和围护结构内表面的热平衡,可以对负荷变化进行动态分析.通过调节各环境参数的组合使供热系统的能耗最小,并建立优化模型对室内环境参数进行优化组合,能够较好地解决城市集中供热负荷的预测问题,为系统的总体优化提供基础.

Study on the load prediction in the heating system

The heating system is characterized by nonlinearity, indefiniteness and changeability with time. It is hard to make an accurate prediction about the load of the city heating system through traditional methods. According to the heat equilibrium of indoor room air and one of the surface of interior protective structures, load change can be dynamically analyzed. Regulating a combination of environmental parameters to attain the minimum energy consumption of the heating system and building the optimization model to optimize and combine a variety of indoor environmental parameters could solve the predictive problem concerning the load of the concentrated city heating and provide the basis for the general optimization regulation of the heating system.