区域洪水频率分析模型的稳健性检验

总体分布形式问题是洪水频率分析中关键性的问题之一。实际洪水的总体分布形式,既不可能在地区上具有统一性(例如各地均为皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布),也不可能仅“靠拟合经验频率”来确定。稳健性检验提供了一种有力工具.借助这个工具,我们可以从多个候选假设总体分布形式中选出合理形式及估计方法.本文利用Monte Carlo 统计实验,对以下四个区域模型(总体分布形式+区域估计方法,以“总体/方法”表示)进行了稳健性检验,并给予评价:(1)WAKEBY/区域概率加权矩法,简为 WAK/PWM~*;(2)极值Ⅱ型/区域概率加权矩法,简为 EV2/PWM;(3)皮尔逊Ⅲ型/修正区域矩法,简为 P3/MOM;(4)二参数对数正态/修正区域矩法,简为 LN2/MOM.

Robust Test on Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Model

Irrespective of which frequency analysis methodology is used,at-site ana- lysis or regional analysis,the true form of parent distribution of observed flood events is still in question.It is neither possible to have a universal form,nor possible to choose a suitable form for AM series by means of good- ness of fit to observed data alone.Robustness testing provides a useful tool to select a suitable distribution for estimation purposes from among several assumed candidate distributions.In this paper,the robustness of regional mo- dels(WAK/PWM,EV2/PWM,P3/MOM and LN2/MOM)is tested by Monte Carlo Experiments which is use population parameters and sample size rele- vant to hydrological practice in Shaanxi Province today.An appraisal of the four models used is also given in the pape.