| 海上事故人为因素量化分析模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 鲍君忠,李建民,刘正江. 海上事故人为因素量化分析模型[J]. 大连海事大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 36(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 鲍君忠 李建民 刘正江 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学,航海学院,辽宁,大连,116026;大连海事大学,航海学院,辽宁,大连,116026;大连海事大学,航海学院,辽宁,大连,116026 |
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| 摘 要： | 为解决目前广泛使用的模糊事故树分析模型缺乏随机性,同时在参与评判的专家人数多时模型量化过程复杂、计算量大的问题,将蒙特卡罗模拟法引入模糊事故树分析模型中,并以在某海上事故调查中发现的一个包含3个基本事件的最小割集为例进行量化分析.结果表明,蒙特卡罗模拟法弥补了模糊事故树分析模型缺乏对事故发生随机性分析的缺点,同时实现了在参与评判的专家人数众多情况下简化量化计算过程的目的.算例结果表明,该模型具有实用性和可操作性.
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| 关 键 词： | 海上事故 人为因素 模糊事故树 量化分析 蒙特卡罗模拟 |
Quantitative analysis model of human factor in marine accident |
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| BAO Jun-zhong,LI Jian-min,LIU Zheng-jiang. Quantitative analysis model of human factor in marine accident[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2010, 36(2) |
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| Authors: | BAO Jun-zhong LI Jian-min LIU Zheng-jiang |
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| Affiliation: | BAO Jun-zhong,LI Jian-min,LIU Zheng-jiang(Navigation College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China) |
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| Abstract: | To solve the problems of fuzzy fault tree analysis model lacking in randomicity at present,and large amount of calculation at the presence of too many experts participating in the judgment with overloading quantization process,Monte Carlo model was introduced into fuzzy fault tree analysis by quantitatively analyzing a minimum cut sets(MCS) composed of 3 basic events in a marine accident investigation.Results show that Monte Carlo simulation method makes up the lacking randomicity due to fuzzy fault tree an... |
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| Keywords: | marine accident human factor fuzzy fault tree quantitative analysis Monte Carlo simulation |
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