| 基于灰色系统理论的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 桂祥友,郁钟铭. 基于灰色系统理论的煤矿瓦斯涌出量预测研究[J]. 贵州工业大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 36(6): 9-13 |
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| 作者姓名： | 桂祥友 郁钟铭 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 贵州大学,矿业学院,贵州,贵阳,550003
2. 武汉理工大学,管理学院,湖北,武汉,430070;贵州民族学院管理学院,贵州,贵阳,550025 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部春晖计划项目(Z072010)，贵州省优秀青年科技人才项目(2007600106)，贵州省国际合作项目(Z073018)，贵州大学引进人才项目(Z065013) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色理论建立巷道瓦斯涌出量的灰色模型,对矿井瓦斯涌出量进行预测预报。采用残差识别方法修正GM(1,1)模型进行瓦斯涌出量预测,预测精度更高。利用灰色灾变预测理论,对某矿矿井工作面瓦斯涌出资料进行分析、研究,建立煤矿瓦斯涌出量灰色预测模型,并对矿井瓦斯涌出量变化趋势进行预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 矿业安全 瓦斯涌出量 灰色系统理论 残差识别 灰色预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-0193（2007）06-0009-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-09-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-09-11 |
Research on Forecast of Coal Bed Methane Emission Quantity Based on Grey System Theory |
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| GUI Xiang-you,YU Zhong-ming. Research on Forecast of Coal Bed Methane Emission Quantity Based on Grey System Theory[J]. Journal of Guizhou University of Technology(Natural Science Edition), 2007, 36(6): 9-13 |
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| Authors: | GUI Xiang-you YU Zhong-ming |
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| Abstract: | Grey system theory was used to found grey mathematic model of coal bed methane quantity of gateway in coal mine,then mine CBM was forecasted by using this model.The drawbacks of prediction of mine gas emission by GM(1,1) method were amended by the practical application of grey method that forecast the amount of gas emission from coal.This method is more accurate than by traditional mine statistic method.Adoption of gray prediction theory,mine gas emission data was analyzed,gray prediction model of gas emission quantity from coal was established and gas emission trend was predicted.Through the creation of gray prediction model,we can predict disastrous gas emission in coal mine can be predicted. |
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| Keywords: | mine security coal gas emission quantity grey system theory remnant difference identification grey forecast |
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