基于粗糙集的现役管道失效可能性评价

现役管道的安全与广大居民的人身安全和财产息息相关。文中通过对油气管道系统的研究,提出了影响管道失效的管道覆土厚度、公众教育、外力损伤、运行管理等9个主要因素;根据失效损失的大小,确定了4个失效后果等级;在此基础上,结合管道失效的主要案例,运用粗糙集理论和层次分析法确定各层的权重,从而得出强化管理、优化设计、提高施工质量、加强公众教育等是影响现役管道失效的6大因素。

Failure possibility evaluation on pipeline in use based on rough set

The safety of the pipeline in use is linked with that of resident life and belongings.Making the research on oil and gas pipeline system,this paper puts forward nine primary factors,including the depth earthed up pipeline,public education,damage by outside force,operation management etc.,that may impact pipeline failure,and sets up four grades on failure consequence according to the loss of failure,determines weight coefficient by analyzing main case of pipeline failure based on rough set theory and analytic hierarchy process. Then,the paper draws some conclusions such as enhancing management,optimizing design,improving construction quality,strengthening public education etc.,and makes them the main channel for preventing pipeline from failure.