安徽省农村居民生活消费与经济增长的实证研究——基于协整理论

以安徽省1980年至2010年数据为例，应用协整分析方法，研究了安徽省农村居民生活消费与经济增长的长期动态均衡关系，建立了反映短期波动的误差修正模型。研究结论是安徽省农村居民生活消费与人均生产总值之间存在协整关系，并且农村居民生活消费中的食品消费支出对于经济增长的拉动作用较住房消费更大。在滞后期为1年至5年，安徽省人均生产总值和人均食品、住房消费支出变动构成单向的格兰杰因果关系。最后提出启动农村消费拉动经济增长的政策建议。

Empirical Study on the Rural Life Consumption and Economic Growth of Anhui Province Based on Co-integration Analysis Theory

Based on the data from 1980 to 2010 Anhui Province and using the method, this paper studies the long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between the rural life consumption and the economic growth, and establishes the Error Correction Model which reflects short term fluctuations. The research result shows that there exists a dynamic equilibrium relationship between the rural life consumption and the economic growth of Anhui, and food consumption expenditure brings a greater pulling effect on eco- nomic growth than expenses on housing. From one year to five years lag, the per capita GDP and food consumption constitute a one-way Granger causality relationship. Finally, we propose the policy recommendations of starting the rural consumer to stimulate economic growth.