灾害性天气预报示范计划技术进展

 在全球气候变化背景下，灾害性天气越来越危及世界各国尤其是发展中国家的可持续发展，准确和可靠的气象预报和预警信息至关重要。介绍了世界气象组织灾害性天气预报示范计划从最初的概念到各区域子计划的发展现状，分别从全球确定性数值模式、区域数值模式、集合预报系统和气象卫星资料应用回顾了灾害性天气预报技术的进展，以及国内外主要气象中心各数值模式和业务系统的基本特征，并分析了目前灾害性天气预报示范计划发展面临的挑战。结合全球气象发展战略和技术趋势，展望了该计划及数值模式技术应用的未来发展。

Progress and prospection of the severe weather forecasting demonstration project technologies

In the context of the global climate change, severe weather is increasingly threatening the sustainable development of all countries, especially, developing countries. Thus an accurate and reliable weather forecast and the warning information are essential. This paper analyzes the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), including its initial concept and the status of regional subprojects. Currently, 8 regional subprojects were set up, covering about 80 countries. The recent technical progresses of the severe weather forecasting are reviewed, including the global deterministic numerical models, the regional numerical models, the ensemble prediction systems and the meteorological satellite data applications. The SWFDP involves a cascading forecasting process to provide an effective access to the products and the tools made available by the advanced operational global and regional centres. The basic characteristics of the numerical models and the operational systems in the major domestic and international meteorological centers are analyzed. Furthermore, current challenges for the development of the severe weather forecasting demonstration project are analyzed and the prospects of the project as well as the numerical model applications are discussed.