贸易战背景下我国典型制造业转移路径的启示

文章基于一种新提出的产业转移价值量核算方法，对2000-2007年及2007-2014年世界产业转移进行了核算，对我国受中美贸易摩擦影响的典型制造业"计算机、电子及光学产品制造业"和"纺织业"在两时期的转移路径进行分析，为这两个行业应对贸易摩擦的策略提供了若干建议.结果显示，对于"计算机、电子及光学产品制造业"，进一步加强本土产品对进口品的替代是应对贸易摩擦的最有效手段；此外，其他发展中经济体与欧洲经济体分别是其最终产品与中间产品的主要潜在外需增长点.对于"纺织业"，合理有序组织产业对外转移是应对贸易摩擦的有效手段；在对外转移的进程中，严防产业空心化是重中之重；在对外转移的承接国选择上，除了发展中经济体，还可以考虑具有传统"纺织业"比较优势的老牌新兴经济体.

Facing the trade war,what can be enlightened from the relocation paths of China's typical manufactures

This paper adopted a new proposed approach to measuring the value of generalized industry relocation based on world input-output model, measured the global industry relocation during the periods 2000-2007 and 2007-2014, analyzed the paths of industry relocation for China's typical manufacture involved in the trade war — "Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products" and "Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products". The results suggested that: for "Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products", increasing the demand of domestic is the most efficient way to coping with the trade friction between China and the US; in addition, the developing economies and European economies have the potential demand growth for the intermediate and final products, respectively. For "Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products", relocating the production out from China is a sensible way to coping with the trade friction, in which the attention should be focused on the risk of "industrial hollowing out" in the first place; as for the destination of industry relocation, not only the developing economies but also the emerging economies should be taken into the consideration.