流域水资源消耗结构与产业结构高级化适配性研究

流域水资源消耗结构与产业结构密切相关，流域经济发展呈现产业结构高级化形态会引起水资源消耗结构的改变.从适配的角度实现直接促进产业结构升级和间接减少水资源消耗量，有利于落实双控行动和以水定产政策.在此形势下，结合流域水资源消耗结构与产业结构高级化适配的机理分析，针对现有二者关联测算方法存在的问题，立足弹性，借鉴Tapio模型，构建二者的适配度测算指标，用于测算二者同步变化的程度及方向，反映适配的动态性、交互性等时空变化特征，为产业经济-水生态效益的偏差测度提供新的思路.以长江支流——湖北省汉江流域为例，研究结果表明，从空间维度看，2003-2016年各区域适配度总和区间为[-27，143]，武汉市取最大值143，尤其是2013-2016年武汉市的适配度不断提高，产业结构和用水结构不断优化；从时间维度看，2003-2016年流域的适配度总和区间为[-106，264]，发现产业结构高级化有时会对二三产水资源消耗结构优化产生负面影响.因此，流域主管机构在制定或评估以水定产政策时，尤其针对适配度最低的随州市，在汲取武汉市相关调整经验的同时，要理性的看待产业结构高级化，正确看待各区域的发展阶段，更多注重产业结构的聚合质量，在双控行动硬约束下，推动区域产业结构的合理化变迁，夯实用水效率提高的长效机制.最后，以武汉市为例对比分析现有3种测算方法表明，适配度测算指标在经济学解释上对产业结构调整更具有指导价值.

The adaptability of basin water resources consumption structure and optimization of industrial structure

Basin water resources consumption structure and industrial structure are highly correlated and the optimization of industrial structure will change water resources consumption structure. From the perspective of adaptation, through directly promoting the upgrading of industrial structure and indirectly reducing water consumption, the double control actions and policy of planning industrial production based on water resources will be implemented fully. Combined with the analysis of the adaptability of basin water resources consumption structure and optimization of industrial structure, the existing problems of the existing methods are discussed. Based on the flexibility and Tapio model, this paper constructs the adaptability measurement index of basin water resources consumption structure and optimization of industrial structure. This index is used to measure the degree and direction of the simultaneous changes of basin water consumption structure and optimization of industrial structure, reflecting the dynamic and interactive characteristics of the adaptation. This index puts forward new ideas for the deviation measurement of industrial economy-water ecological benefit. This method is applied to calculate the sum adaptability of all regions as [-27,143] in Hanjiang River Basin in Hubei Province of Yangtze River from 2003 to 2016. Wuhan has taken the maximum value as 143. The adaptability, industrial structure and water structure of Wuhan City have been continuously improved from 2013 to 2016. This method is applied to calculate the adaptability as [-106,264] in this basin from 2003 to 2016. The reverse optimization of the industrial structure had a positive impact on the optimization of water resources in the secondary and tertiary industry. The basin authorities should rationally look at the optimization of the industrial structure when formulating or evaluating the policy of planning production by water resources, especially for Suizhou city with the lowest adaptability. The basin authorities should correctly consider the development stages of multi-regions within the basin, and pay more attention to the quality of the industrial structure. Then, the rationalization of regional industrial structure and the long-term mechanism for improving water efficiency can be implemented. Finally, our extended approach in compared with existing methods will be developed to guide the industrial structure adjustment in economic interpretation.