| 风电功率波动特性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周鑫,黄创霞,谭艳祥.风电功率波动特性研究[J].湖南文理学院学报(自然科学版),2015(2):39-42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周鑫 黄创霞 谭艳祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 长沙理工大学 数学与计算科学学院，湖南 长沙，410076 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，国家级大学生创新训练项目，长沙理工大学教改项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用概率分布拟合和基于遗传算法的BP神经网络的预测建模对风电功率波动特性进行定量分析。首先,针对风电功率实测数据建立了概率分布拟合模型并分析了拟合结果;其次,建立了基于不同时间间隔历史实测数据的BP神经网络预测模型,数据检验表明该模型对于峰值有很理想的预测精度且整体精度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 概率分布拟合 遗传算法 BP神经网络 |
The research of wind power fluctuation characteristic |
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| Abstract: | The fluctuation of wind power is analyzed by probability distribution fitting and forecasting model of BP neural networkbased to quantitative. Firstly, the distribution fitting probability model is established according to the measured data of wind power;secondly, BP neural network prediction model for different time intervals of history data is established;the existing data test show that the model for the peak has a very good prediction and the overall prediction accuracy is higher. The obtained results have certain guiding significance to create balance mechanism of wind power effectively. |
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| Keywords: | probability distribution fitting genetic algorithm BP neural network |
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