中国气象灾害对宏观经济增长的影响分析?

自然灾害一直伴随着人类社会的生产、生活与发展,气象灾害尤甚.据中国气象局资料统计,在各类自然灾害中,气象灾害损失大约占到70%以上.本文在对中国气象灾害时空分布及趋势分析的基础上,运用中国31个省(市)2004—2013年的气象灾害数据及次年社会经济数据,分析了气象灾害对各省(市)次年经济增长的影响,结果表明:以直接经济损失和受灾人口为度量的气象灾害,短期内,会对各省第二年GDP增长率产生较为显著的正面影响,这种正面影响受到城市化率、开放程度、教育水平、交通状况、医疗卫生水平等社会经济因素的影响.

Impacts of meteorological disaster on economic growth in China

Natural disasters especially meteorological disasters can lead to considerable fatality and economic loss. Statistics from The Chinese Meteorological Administration indicates that loss due to meteorological disaster accounts for 70% or more of all natural disasters.The spatial distribution and temporal trends of such losses are analyzed in the present paper.The effect of meteorological disaster on macro-economic growth is examined based on social economic data and meteorological disaster data in 3 1 provinces in China from 2004-2013.Loss due to meteorological disasters has been found to have significant positive effect on economic growth rate in the following year at the province level.Such a positive effect is influenced by social and economic factors,including urbanization rate,government size,openness,education level,traffic and level of medical services.