中国西汉至清代北方农牧民族战争及其与温度变化的关联

本文重建了中国西汉到清代(206BC—1911AD)北方游牧民族与农耕民族的战争变化序列,进而分析了民族战争与气候变化之间的关系.结果显示:1)双方共发生战争832次,平均每10a发生3.9次;根据战争频次可划分为西汉低发、东汉高发期,三国魏晋南北朝、隋唐五代低发期,宋元明清高发期3个阶段;在百年尺度和30a尺度的气候变化上,气候暖期多对应战争高发,冷期多对应战争低发.2)农牧战争中,有71.3%的战争为游牧民族发动,但最终61.1%的战争为农耕民族获胜;相比于暖期,冷期农耕民族主动发动战争的比例增加,但胜利的比例降低.3)气候变化作为战争事件背景,对战争有间接影响.冷期时,农耕、游牧双方实力均有减弱,形成退让态势,战争频次相对较少;暖期游牧民族多次发动战争,可能是由人口膨胀导致的生活资料匮乏、游牧民族强盛时社会结构性需求扩大引起的,同时暖期的气候环境为游牧民族南下提供了良好的物质基础,战争掠夺所带来的低成本高收益也诱使游牧民族引发与农耕民族的战争.

Wars between farming and nomadic groups from Western Han Dynasty to Qing Dynasty in north China and relationship with temperature change

In ancient China,nomadic and farming groups had different lifestyles,reflecting differences in living conditions.Changes in regional agriculture and animal husbandry productivity due to climate changes led to either wars or peace between nomadic and farming groups.A war sequence of farming and nomadic groups in north China from Western Han Dynasty to Qing Dynasty (206BC—1911AD)was reconstructed,and relationship between national war and climate change was analyzed.There were 832 wars between the two groups from Western Han Dynasty to Qing Dynasty.The average was 3.9 times per 10a.High incidence of war occurred in Eastern Han Dynasty,Song Dynasty,Yuan Dynasty,Ming Dynasty,Qing Dynasty.Low incidence of war occurred in Western Han Dynasty,Three Kingdoms,Wei and Jin Dynasties,and Northern and Southern Dynasties,Sui and Tang Dynasties,Five Dynasties.On a 100-year-period timescale and a 30-year-period timescale,warm climates corresponded to high incidence of war,and cold climates corresponded to low incidence of war. The nomadic people initiated 7 1.3% of wars, but 6 1.1% were won by the farmers. Compared with warm period, proportion of farming people initiating wars in cold period increased, but proportion of victories was reduced.Climate change plays an indirect role in wars between the two groups.In cold period,strength of both groups weakened,and concessions were made lowering war frequency.In warm period,nomadic group initiated wars many times possibly due to insufficient means of livelihood after population expansion and expanded social structural requirements when nomadic group was strong.Further, warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups,especially contributed to improve productivity of nomadic group.War plunders with low cost and high yield also induced war occurrence between farming and nomadic groups.