复杂产品项目工作分解绩效预测的系统动力学模型

基于复杂产品项目工作分解的特征和系统动力学在解决系统本质行为和机理方面的优势, 建立系统动力学模型, 用以分析对产品复杂度的把握、核心技术的创新能力、人员动因、 合作伙伴和外部环境对工作分解绩效的发展影响, 并对特大型船舶制造项目进行动态仿真, 分析和预测工作分解的绩效和可能存在的问题, 结果表明: 对产品复杂度的把握和核心技术的创新能力是工作分解绩主要压力, 因此导致的企业投入分配比例问题将是工作分解高效进行的主要制约因素, 主要影响因素相互协调配合才能有效提升工作分解绩效.

Performance prediction of work breakdown structure for complex product project based on system dynamics

In virtue of the character of work breakdown structure (WBS) for complex product project and strongpoint of system dynamic in resolve essential conduct and mechanism of system, the research used the method of system dynamic to construct the dynamic model through system analysis, and analyzed the effect of product complexity, core technology innovation ability, staff motivation, partners, external environment on performance of WBS based on the model, the development trends of super major shipbuilding project were simulated and performance of WBS and problems were analyzed and forecasted. The results show that product complexity and innovation capabilities of core enterprise are the main pressure of performance of WBS. As a result, the reasonable redistribution of enterprise investment is the major constraint of efficiency of performance of WBS, and performance will be strengthened through the coordination of the main factors.