政府主导的基于实物期权契约的应急物资采购模型

应急物资的采购和储备是应急管理的一项基础工作， 但是由于面临不确定的需求， 决策可能带来的供应不足和资源浪费风险非常大， 探索提高决策质量效果的科学 方法和机制， 势在必行. 本文将实物期权契约引入到由政府和供应商组成的非营利性供应链中， 通过建立协调机制， 提出了基于实物期权契约的应急物资采购模型， 为 政府确定合理的期权价格策略提供决策依据. 通过实验仿真， 对比分析了期权合约带来的政府成本和供应商收益变化， 进一步分析了不同价格策略对供需双方的作用效果， 以及应急条件下现货市场供应能力和突发灾害发生时间点对供应双方决策的影响. 结果显示， 通过参与期权合约， 政府可以大幅度减小实物储备量， 有效降低库存成本， 供应商也可以获得更大的收益， 带来整体效益增加1.43%的实际效果.

Government-driving emergency supplies procurement model based on real option contract

The reservation and procurement of emergency supplies are a very basic and important job in emergency management. But for being faced with uncertain requirement, the decisions in these areas maybe bring about big risks of insufficient supply or waste of resources. It is necessary to study scientific decision methods and mechanisms. The paper introduced the idea of option contract into the non-profit supply chain management which consists of government and a supplier, and established an option contract based emergency supplies purchasing model by the supply chain's coordination mechanism. The model could support the government to make better and suitable decisions in the option's price. Through the simulation experiments, the changes of government's cost and supplier's return were comparably analyzed, the effectiveness of different price strategies upon the supplier and buyer were revealed, and the influences of the supplying capacity of the spot market and the emergency events occurred time on the decisions of the two sides were excavated. The results show that the government could reduce a large part of emergency supplies inventory and save its cost by taking part in the option contract, and also the enterprise could add its revenues. The total profit of the supply chain could get about 1.43% rises.