基于省际面板数据的中国城镇居民用电直接回弹效应研究

提高能源效率是降低居民生活能源消费的一个重要途径，而由技术进步引起的能源回弹效应的大小直接关系到能效政策实施的有效性. 在简要分析回顾能源消费直接回弹效应的主要理论和估算方法的基础上，以1996-2011 年中国30 个省区的面板数据，建立双对数模型与误差修正模型，对中国城镇居民用电的回弹效应进行了实证分析. 结果表明： 中国城镇居民用电存在明显的部分回弹效应，且长期回弹效应为0.71，短期回弹效应为0.47. 大部分由效率提高所带来的能源节约都由于回弹效应的存在被抵消，回弹效应的存在减小了能效政策的实施效果，因此中国政府在制定能效政策时有必要制定相应的措施来控制和减小能源回弹效应.

Direct rebound effect of urban residential electricity use：An empirical evidence from China

Improving energy efficiency is an important approach to decrease energy consumption, and the magnitude of energy rebound effect caused by technology progress directly affects the effectiveness of energy effect policies. This paper briefly reviews the main theory of energy rebound effect, with China's 30 provincial government panel data from 1996 to 2011, builds a double logarithm and a panel error correction model to empirically analyze the direct rebound effect of urban residential electricity use. The results show that: the Chinese urban residential electricity consumption exists a partial rebound effect, and the long-term rebound effect is 0.71, the short-term rebound effect is 0.47. A majority of the expected reduction in urban residential electricity consumption from efficiency improvement could be offset due to the existence of rebound effect. The rebound effect impairs the functions of energy efficiency policies, and therefore the Chinese government should take the effect into consideration when formulating energy policies.