基于系统动力学的城市交通拥堵治理问题研究

近年来，我国城市交通供给和需求的矛盾在日益突出，城市交通拥堵问题越来越严重，除影响城市居民正常出行、导致环境污染加重外，严重影响了城市物流的正常运行，成为整个城市经济社会发展的制约因素. 本文从城市交通拥堵这一现象入手，分析了交通拥堵的现状、原因、影响及其根源，从城市居民出行和城市物流两个角度总结了现有解决交通拥堵问题的对策，在此基础上结合我国的实际情况，用系统动力学的方法建立了治理城市交通拥堵的系统动力学模型，并以北京市为例，对北京市典型的治堵措施的实施效果进行了仿真分析，从而得出适合我国的解决城市交通拥堵的对策建议.

Research on the governance of urban traffic jam based on system dynamics

In recent years, contradiction between supply and demand of urban transport of China is increasingly prominent, and urban traffic jam is getting more and more grave, seriously impact urban residents' normal travel, cause environmental pollution, as well as seriously impact normal operation of urban logistics and become development constraints of the whole city economy. This paper starts with phenomenon of urban traffic jam, and analyzes the present situation, the reasons, the effect and the root of urban traffic jam, and summaries the existing measures for the governance of urban traffic jam from the perspective of urban residents travel and urban logistics. On the basis of summarizing the plugging measures as well as considering the actual situation of our country, this paper establishes the system dynamics model of the management of urban traffic jam with the method of system dynamics. In the last place, this paper takes Beijing as an example, simulates the effect of the typical plugging measures in Beijing, and reaches the suggestions for China to solve urban traffic jam.