| Abstract: | In the finance market, risk happened in two pattern. In one case, extreme volatility together with a short balance time leads to a great panic to the market. On the contrary, if the volatility is smaller, the time period will usually be longer. It will bring many infections to various related fields,which causes wider range influences to the economy. Both cases hurt financial market and the economy itself deeply. In this paper, we developed a novel market regulation method in which the conflict of fluctuation time and volatility will be balanced. It describes a way to compute a portfolio of relatively short time period together with smaller fluctuation volatility by using a general prediction algorithm based on overshoot in cybernetics. It can also give explanation to counter-cyclical supervision theory and macro-prudential regulation. Furthermore, it can provide numerical operation guide for countercyclical supervision theory and macro-prudential regulation. |
