地震灾害的模糊予测与地震工程模糊可靠度

本文分析了产生地震危险的随机性与地震烈度本身的模糊性,从而获得将地震灾害予测作为模糊随机事件的处理方法。以模糊概率子集表示予测的结果,它全面的估计了地震发生后可能出现的震害评定,为工程抗震设防的决策提供了科学依据。其次,基于地震烈度的模糊性,定义了模糊烈度和清晰烈度。从基于清晰烈度的通常可靠度的概念和计算方法中,引伸出了基于模糊烈度的模糊可靠度的概念和计算方法。它不仅考虑了地震动效应和结构抗力的随机性,而且顾及地震烈度、场地分类等的模糊性,提出了以模糊概率表示的地震工程可靠度。最后,在分析了影响地震工程可靠度诸多因素基础上建议了对地震工程可靠度模糊综合评判的方法。

FUZZY PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE DAMAGES AND FUZZY RELIABILITY ANALYSIS IN EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING

In this paper, based on the analysis of randomness of earthquake occurrence and fuzziness of earthquake intensity, a method is obtained by treating the earthquake damage prediction as fuzzy-random event. The prediction results expressed by fuzzy probabilistic subset wholely estimated the earthquake damage assessment. This provides a scientific basis for enginee- ring decision of setting up earthquake-resistant defence.In addition, considering the fuzziness of earthquake intensity, the fuzzy earthquake intensity and explicit earthquake intensity are defined. Concept and computational method based on the fuzzy earthquake intensity and fuzzy reliability were extended from the conventional concept and calculational method for reliability based on the explicit earthquake intensity. Reliability expressed by fuzzy probability were therefore obtained by taking into account the randomness of earthquake effect the structural resistance as well as the fuzziness of earthquake intensity field classification etc. Based on the analysis of the effect of multi-factors on reliability in earthquake engineering, the method for fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of reliability in earthquake engineering is suggested.