要地防空中目标未确知威胁的测度变权评价

对空袭目标威胁程度的判断是要地防空作战指挥决策中的核心问题之一 ,它涉及许多不确定的因素和难以量化的定性因素 ,并综合表现为决策者主观认识上的不确定性 ,即未确知性 .因为空袭目标本身对自己的任务是明确的 ,但我方获得的情报不足以确定目标的真实意图和它对保卫目标的威胁程度 .应用未确知数学理论 ,提出满足非负性、归一性和可加性的未确知测度函数 ,建立了评价排序模型 ,更准确地反映了判断目标威胁程度的实质 .模型具有合理、精细、分辨率高、计算简单、高效等特点 .最后针对一个想定空情获得了较为成功的应用 .

The Measurement Varying Weight Evaluation of Unascertained Threats from Air Targets in Key-point Air Defence

The assessment of the extent of threat from an air raiding target, as one of the central problems in the decision of air defence command, involves many uncertain factors and some other qualitative factors which are hard to determine in guantity. These problems reflect uncertainty, or unascertainment of the decision-maker in his subjective thinking. Although the air raiding target has its definite task, the information available is not enough for the decision-maker to determine its intention and extent of threat to our defence points. By applying the unascertained measurement theory, the unascertained measurement functions conforming to non-negativity-normalization and additivity are presented. On this basis, a model of assessment sequence is set up to more precisely make out the extent of threat from assessed air target. The model is reasonable in design, high in resolving power, simple but precise effective in calculation. At the end, the model is successfully applied to the assessment of an air situation.