| 多维时序模型及其在人口死亡预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴雅,杨叔子,杜跃芬,周有尚.多维时序模型及其在人口死亡预报中的应用[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),1987(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴雅 杨叔子 杜跃芬 周有尚 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中工学院机械工程一系
(吴雅，杨叔子)，武汉同济医科大学
(杜跃芬)，武汉同济医科大学(周有尚) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文讨论了多维时序模型的四个最基本的系统特性和统计特性的表述形式,建立了人口总死亡数、心脏病患者和肿瘤患者死亡数的“多输入-单输出”形式的多维时序模型,并进行了预报.结果表明,前两者受气象因素的影响,而后者基本与气象因素无关.
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| 关 键 词： | 心脏病 肿瘤病 多维时序模型 系统特性 统计特性 对偶系关 人口总死亡数 |
Multi-Dimension Time Series Model and Its Application in Death Forecasting |
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| Wu Ya Yang Shuzi Du Yuefen Zhou Youshang.Multi-Dimension Time Series Model and Its Application in Death Forecasting[J].JOURNAL OF HUAZHONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.NATURE SCIENCE,1987(2). |
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| Authors: | Wu Ya Yang Shuzi Du Yuefen Zhou Youshang |
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| Institution: | Wu Ya Yang Shuzi Du Yuefen Zhou Youshang |
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| Abstract: | The systematic and statistical characteristicses of multi-dimension time series model are formulized. There exist the dual relationships among them just like those existing in scalar model. Multi-dimension time series models in the form of multi-input-single-output are modelled and used to forecast the population death amount due to heart disease and tumor. The results show that climate does affect both the population death and the heart disease death but does not affect the tumor death. |
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| Keywords: | Heart disease Tumor Multi dimension time series model System characteristics Statistical characteristios Dual relationship Popu la t ion death amount |
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