| 我国6大境外客源市场旅游本底趋势线的建立 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙根年. 我国6大境外客源市场旅游本底趋势线的建立[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2000, 20(1): 140-143. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2000)1-140 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙根年 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游系 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金!资助项目 (编号 :4 95 71 0 2 7) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了旅游本底趋势线的概念,并依据1984年～1996年客流量统计数据,建立了日本、美国、英国、德国、法国和澳大利亚6大境外市场来华旅游的本底趋势线;利用本底线延伸的预测功能,预测了6大境外市场未来4年的变化趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 6大客源市场 旅游本底趋势线 趋势预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998-07-10 |
Foundation of Tourism Background-Trend-Line of 6 Major Tourism-Source-Markets of China |
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| SUN Gen-nian. Foundation of Tourism Background-Trend-Line of 6 Major Tourism-Source-Markets of China[J]. Systems Engineering —Theory & Practice, 2000, 20(1): 140-143. DOI: 10.12011/1000-6788(2000)1-140 |
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| Authors: | SUN Gen-nian |
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| Affiliation: | Shaanxi Normal University |
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| Abstract: | The concept of tourism background trend line was put forward in this paper. Based on the statistics data of foreign tourists from 1984a to 1996a, 6 background trend lines were founded by optimization simulated method, which deal with Japan, America, Britain, Germany, Australia and France. As applications, the author forecasts the next 4 years' development trends of above 6 markets with the forecasting function of tourism background trend line. |
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| Keywords: | 6 major tourism source markets tourism background trend line trend prediction |
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