| 基于人口发展趋势的中国环境预警浅析 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓艳,柏益尧,左玉辉.基于人口发展趋势的中国环境预警浅析[J].河南科学,2008,26(2):244-248. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓艳 柏益尧 左玉辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学,环境学院,污染控制与资源化国家重点实验室,南京,210093 |
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| 摘 要： | 环境预警以尽早识别环境演变中可能出现的危机为目的,在我国特殊的人口背景下,正确认识人口发展趋势对于合理进行环境预警有着重要意义.基于年龄生育率的人口预测模型结果显示,21世纪中国人口发展(总量、结构与城市化)将出现前所未有的变化,"大起大落"是最为显著的特征.根据预警原则,认为剧烈的人口变化将可能对环境演变产生两大方面不利影响:第一,过快的城市化以及盲目的城市建设将直接导致大量的资源浪费与环境污染现象;第二,人口剧变对经济发展可能产生的不利影响将导致环境污染防治资金投入不足.最后对预防上述环境问题的产生提出初步的建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 环境预警 人口趋势 城市化 可持续发展 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-3918（2008）02-0244-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-09-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年9月8日 |
Analysis of Environmental Early Warning of China Based on the Population Trends |
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| Deng Yan,Bai Yiyao,Zuo Yuhui.Analysis of Environmental Early Warning of China Based on the Population Trends[J].Henan Science,2008,26(2):244-248. |
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| Authors: | Deng Yan Bai Yiyao Zuo Yuhui |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse;Environmental School;Nanjing University;Nanjing 210093;China |
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| Abstract: | Environmental early warning aimed at distinguishing crisis from environmental evolvement as early as possible,under the especial background of population in China,recognizing the population trends exactly will have important meaning to make environmental early warning reasonably.By the model of population projection based on Age-Specific Fertility Rate,population trends of China in 21st century(quantity,structure and urbaniza-tion)will turn to a predicament that never had happened formerly,"increasing large... |
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| Keywords: | environmental early warning population trends urbanization sustainable development |
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