| 人口迁移的空间相互作用、Markov链和线性规划分析——以福建省南平市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈兰,申志慧,郑玮锋,周沿海,戴湘毅. 人口迁移的空间相互作用、Markov链和线性规划分析——以福建省南平市为例[J]. 吉林师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 0(4): 148-153 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈兰 申志慧 郑玮锋 周沿海 戴湘毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学 园林学院,福建 福州,350002
2. 首都师范大学 资源环境与旅游学院，北京 100048; 中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41201100)；中国博士后科学基金项目(2013M541025)；福建农林大学校青年基金项目(2010028)；福建省教育厅项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以福建省南平市10个县域人口的空间迁移数据为资料,首先基于双约模型,计算人口迁移的合理格局,然后利用Markov链预测将来人口迁移的趋势,最后借助线性规划计算人口的合理分布.结果表明:(1)人口迁移的不对称性显著.(2)远期人口分配仍以延平区、邵武市为最大,建瓯市、建阳区位于第二梯队.(3)武夷山市和建阳区作为行政区划调整后的核心地区,应该加强基础设施建设,以增强辐射能力.
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| 关 键 词： | 空间相互作用 引力模型 Markov 链 线性规划 人口迁移 南平市 |
The Spatial Interaction of Population Migration,Markov Chain and Linear Programming---taking Nanping City in Fujian province for example |
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| CHEN Lan,SHEN Zhi-hui,ZHENG Wei-feng,ZHOU Yan-hai,DAI Xiang-yi. The Spatial Interaction of Population Migration,Markov Chain and Linear Programming---taking Nanping City in Fujian province for example[J]. Jilin Normal University Journal(Natural Science Edition), 2014, 0(4): 148-153 |
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| Authors: | CHEN Lan SHEN Zhi-hui ZHENG Wei-feng ZHOU Yan-hai DAI Xiang-yi |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Lan, SHEN Zhi-hui, ZHENG Wei-feng, ZHOU Yan-hai, DAI Xiang-yi (1. College of Landscape Architecture, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China; 2. College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China ; 3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of population migration in the city of Nanping in Fujian province,this paper attempts to apply Spatial Interaction Model,Markov Chain and Linear Programming to study the population migration in this area. Firstly,the Gravity Model of Spatial Interaction is used to compute the migration and allocation of population in different sub-districts. Then Markov Chain is employed to predict the trend of population migration in the future. Finally,Linear Programming is adopted to calculate the population distribution. The conclusions are drawn as follows：（1）the proportion and the way of population migration is diversity and there exists a significant asymetry of populaiton migration;（2）the forward population distribution reveals that Yanping and Shaowu are the two largest cities,while the second are Jian’ou and Jianyang;（3）it suggests that Wuyishan and Jianyang should strengthen their construction of infrustructure to enhance the radiating capacity as a new administrative center. |
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| Keywords: | spatial interaction gravity model markov chain linear programming population migration the City of Nanping |
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