中国农民工流动时空偏好及驱动机理研究——基于2011—2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析

农民工问题事关我国经济和社会发展全局，也是推动乡村振兴发展亟需解决的核心问题之一.该研究通过构建农民工流动网络，分析不同时间截面农民工流动的空间偏好，并利用QAP方法探讨驱动农民工流动空间偏好选择的关键因素.结果表明：1) 农民工总量持续增加，增速减缓，外出农民工进一步增多，但总占比有所下降；2) 农民工以东西向流动为主，京津冀、沪苏浙以及广东省三大区域是主要的流入地，中西部地区是主要的流出源；3) 农民工流动网络中的主体以年龄31～50岁为主，且大多数农民工仅有初中及以下学历，主要流动聚集地为北京、上海、天津、浙江、广东、江苏等东部发达省市；4) QAP回归表明，农民工流动偏好与人均GDP、居民人均可支配收入、第二产业产值比重、第三产业产值比重、初级中学以上公办学校数量、省会城市之间的距离以及是否邻省具有显著的关系.

Spatio-temporal preference and driving mechanism of migrant workers' mobility in China： based on the data of the national floating population dynamic monitoring survey from 2011 to 2018

The issue of migrant workers concerns China's overall economic and social development， and is also one of the core issues that needs to be addressed in promoting rural revitalization and development. In this study， the spatial preference of migrant workers' mobility at different time sections is analyzed by constructing migrant workers' mobility network， and QAP method is used to explore the key factors driving the choice of migrant workers' flow spatial preference. The results are shown as follows. 1) The total number of migrant workers continues to increase， but the growth rate slows down. 2) Migrant workers mainly flow from west to east. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei， Shanghai-Jiangsu-Zhejiang and Guangdong Province are the main inflow areas， and the central and western regions are the main outflow sources. 3) The majority of migrant workers in the migration network are 31 to 50 years old， and most migrant workers have only junior high school education or below. The main migration centers are Beijing， Shanghai， Tianjin， Zhejiang， Guangdong， Jiangsu and other eastern developed provinces or cities. 4) QAP regression results shows that migrant workers' mobility preference has a significant relationship with per capita GDP， per capita disposable income of residents， the proportion of output value of secondary industry， the proportion of output value of tertiary industry， the number of public schools above junior middle school，the distance between provincial capitals and whether they are neighboring provinces.