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灰色GM(1,1)模型在山区耕地预测中的应用研究
引用本文:刘海红,袁希平,甘淑,寇卫利,张俊宇.灰色GM(1,1)模型在山区耕地预测中的应用研究[J].河南科学,2011,29(5):619-622.
作者姓名:刘海红  袁希平  甘淑  寇卫利  张俊宇
作者单位:1. 昆明理工大学,国土资源工程学院,昆明,650093
2. 西南林学院,计算机与信息科学系,昆明,650224
3. 广西第一测绘院,国土遥感分院,南宁,530023
基金项目:滇西南地质灾害形成机制调查及空间分异研究
摘    要:以云南楚雄1999-2005年耕地面积数据为试验资料,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型分析探讨耕地面积的变化状况.初步结果表明:楚雄耕地面积的动态变化结果符合客观实际的变化规律,未来几年,楚雄拼地面积仍呈递减的趋势.

关 键 词:灰色GM(1  1)模型  耕地面积  预测方法  精度

The Study of Mountain Land Forecast Based on Grey GM(1,1)
Liu Haihong,Yuan Xiping,Gan Shu,Kou Weili,Zhang Junyu.The Study of Mountain Land Forecast Based on Grey GM(1,1)[J].Henan Science,2011,29(5):619-622.
Authors:Liu Haihong  Yuan Xiping  Gan Shu  Kou Weili  Zhang Junyu
Institution:1.Faculty of Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China; 2.Department of Computer and Information Sciences,Southwest Forestry College,Kunming 650224,China; 3.Surveying and Mapping Institute of Guangxi,Land Remote Sensing Branch,Nanning 530023,China)
Abstract:With the cultivated land data of Chuxiong city in Yunnan provice during 1999-2005 as experimental data,based on gray model GM(1,1) analyzed changes in status of the cultivated land.The preliminary result indicated:with Gray GM(1,1) model to predict Chuxiong the dynamic results are in accord with objective reality,in the next few years,Chuxiong cultivated land continued to show a decreasing trend.
Keywords:Gray Model GM(1  1)  cultivated land  prediction  accuracy
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