| 水文预报不确定性的研究进展与展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 张洪刚,郭生练,何新林,李超群. 水文预报不确定性的研究进展与展望[J]. 石河子大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 24(1): 15-21 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张洪刚 郭生练 何新林 李超群 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文归纳了水文预报不确定性的来源与分类,综述了国内外对水文预报不确定性的研究进展以及相关文献、方法与模型,展望了水文预报不确定性研究的发展前景.水文预报的不确定性始终存在,并制约防洪调度决策的正确性,水文预报结果应该描述为概率的而不是确定的形式,概率水文预报实现了预报与决策的耦合.
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| 关 键 词： | 水文预报不确定性 概率水文预报 贝叶斯方法 定量降水预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7383（2006）01-0015-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-08 |
Recent Advancement and Prospect of Hydrological Forecasting Uncertainty Study |
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| ZHANG Hong-gang,GUO Sheng-lian,HE Xin-lin,LI Chao-qun. Recent Advancement and Prospect of Hydrological Forecasting Uncertainty Study[J]. Journal of Shihezi University(Natural Science), 2006, 24(1): 15-21 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Hong-gang GUO Sheng-lian HE Xin-lin LI Chao-qun |
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| Abstract: | This paper concludes the resumes associated with forecasting uncertainty. The recent advancement of literatures, methodology and models used to deal with forecasting uncertainty are concisely reviewed. The future research directions and prospect are suggested and recommended. Forecasting uncertainty in hydrology has always been in existence, which has restricted the correctness of flood warning and control decision-making. If the forecasting results could be expressed in probabilistic, rather than deterministic form, then flood forecasting and decision-making processes can be combined together. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting uncertainty in hydrology probabilistic forecasting Bayesian method quantitative precipitation forecasting |
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