春节黄金周云南旅游片区人流量的模型分析

利用二次函数模型和凸分布函数模型方法分析云南旅游片区春节黄金周的人流量.首先,选择旅游人数较多的7个地区,分为滇中、滇西、滇西北、滇东南4个片区,给出每个区的二次模型,并估计它们在初六、初七的旅游人数及床位出租率.其次,利用凸分布模型给出4个片区高峰天旅游人数及床位出租率的概率,以及2007年春节黄金周高峰天旅游人数和床位出租率预测.

A model analysis for the tourists in the touring areas of Yunnan province during the Traveling Week of Spring Festival

A quadratic function model and convex function model methods are applied to analyze the tourists in the touring areas of Yunnan province during the Traveling Week of Spring Festival.At first,seven main touring areas are chosen and divided into four big areas named as mid Dian,west Dian,northwest Dian,and southeast Dian.Then,the quadratic models given for each district of these four areas and used for predicting the tourists and the ratios of rent of beds are on the sixth and seventh days.Finally,probabilities for the tourists and the ratios of rent for the beds on the day that has the most tourists for these four areas are given and the tourists and the ratios of rent for the beds on the peak day are predicted for the year of 2007.