| 区域道路交通安全水平综合评价和预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘涛,李晔. 区域道路交通安全水平综合评价和预测方法[J]. 同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2005, 33(3): 311-315 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘涛 李晔 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学,道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海,200092 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市重点学科建设资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对国内外道路交通安全水平的评价和预测方法进行了对比和分析 ,提出了适合目前国内现阶段管理体制的以模糊数学综合评价模型为基础的评价和预测方法 .该方法采用模糊评价综合模式计算评价目标区各评价指标最大概率所对应的等级 ,通过层次分析计算各指标间的权重系数 ,在此基础上计算得到区域道路交通安全的综合评价指标———道路安全指数IRS.实际应用证明该方法合理可行 .
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| 关 键 词： | 区域道路交通 安全水平 综合评价 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-374X(2005)03-0311-05 |
Synthetic Evaluation and Prediction Model of Road Safety Grade in Regional Road Network |
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| LIU Tao,LI Ye. Synthetic Evaluation and Prediction Model of Road Safety Grade in Regional Road Network[J]. Journal of Tongji University(Natural Science), 2005, 33(3): 311-315 |
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| Authors: | LIU Tao LI Ye |
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| Abstract: | Through systematic comparison of different models abroad and at home,and comprehensive analysis of the present stage of road traffic safety management system in China,a regional road safety grade evaluation and prediction model is founded.This model adopts fuzzy mathematics to calculate the most probable grade of each index respectively,the relative importance between different indexes is determined through hierarchy analysis in the meantime,and then a comprehensive index I_ RS reflecting the regional road network safety grade is obtained.The rationality and feasibility of the model are verified by actual applications. |
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| Keywords: | regional road traffic safety grade synthesis evaluation prediction model |
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