“十二五”期间我国人口自然增长率的预测及政策建议

《国家人口发展"十二五"规划》明确提出了将我国的人口年均自然增长率控制在7.2‰以内,该目标的实现一方面影响到我国人口的长期均衡发展,影响到我国人口与经济社会、人口和资源环境的协调发展;另一方面也影响我国人口政策的制定,以及对已经实行了30年的计划生育政策的调整,因此,对"十二五"规划期间人口自然增长率的预测研究具有重要意义。选取1981~2010年间人口自然增长率数据,根据数据统计特点,采用二次指数平滑法预测"十二五"规划期间人口自然增长率,预测结果显示:"十二五"规划人口自然增长率的控制目标不但可以实现,而且人口自然增长率呈进一步下降趋势。

Study on Objective of Annual Population Natural Growth Rate during the 12^th Five-year Plan Period and Population Development Suggestions

The objective of annual natural growth rate of population during the 12^th Five-year Plan period is to be controlled within 7.2‰, which is clearly described in the National 12^th Five-year Population Development Plan. Whether the objective can be realized will affect the balance of long-term population development, society, and also harmonies among resources, environment, population and economy. And besides that it will also affect the future population policy, so it is important to forecast the natural population growth rate during the 12^th Five-year Plan period. Based on data of natural population growth rate from 1981 to 2010, the method of double exponential smoothing is applied to forecast the annual natural population growth rate during the 12^th Five-Year Plan period. Results show that the objective to be controlled can be successfully achieved. In fact the natural population growth rate will be far below 7.2‰, and in a downward trend.