| 综合客运枢纽换乘量预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾洪飞,宗芳,乔路.综合客运枢纽换乘量预测方法[J].系统工程,2009,27(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾洪飞 宗芳 乔路 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学,交通学院,吉林,长春,130025
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 以出行费用、方便性、舒适性和速度为换乘阻抗,建立了基于双约束重力模型的综合客运枢纽换乘量预测模型,采用非集计Logit模型建立并标定了换乘阻抗函数,并以北京市西直门客运枢纽为例对模型进行了实证分析和验证,应用TransCAD软件完成对所建换乘量预测模型的标定且进行换乘量的预测.研究表明综合应用集计与非集计方法建立的换乘量预测模型具有较好的实用性,能较为客观和精确地预测枢纽内各交通方式间换乘量,为综合客运枢纽的规划建设提供科学依据.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通规划 换乘量 重力模型 非集计模型 综合客运枢纽 |
Transfer Volume Forecasting Method in Comprehensive Passenger Transport Hub |
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| JIA Hong-fei,ZONG Fang,QIAO Lu.Transfer Volume Forecasting Method in Comprehensive Passenger Transport Hub[J].Systems Engineering,2009,27(1). |
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| Authors: | JIA Hong-fei ZONG Fang QIAO Lu |
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| Institution: | JIA Hong-fei,ZONG Fang,QIAO Lu(Traffic and Transportation College of Jilin University,Changchun 130025,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper builds a transfer volume forecasting model for comprehensive passenger transport hub based on the gravity model.In the model,the transfer impedance function takes fare,convenience,comfort and speed into account and is built with the disaggregate Logit model.Then,this paper uses the survey data in Beijing Xizhimen passenger hub to testify the validity of the model and the model is calibrated with the TransCAD software. The results show that the developed transfer volume forecasting model,which com... |
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| Keywords: | Transportation Planning Transfer Volume Gravity Model Disaggregate Model Comprehensive Passenger Transport Hub |
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