基于决策树的财务预警

实现有效的财务失败预测对于银行、投资者、企业和政府管理机构来说具有重要的意义.本文以上市公司为研究对象,选取了反映上市公司盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、成长能力和公司规模的17个财务指标,区别于传统的建模方法,应用决策树技术建立了中国上市公司的财务困境预警系统.实证结果表明本系统具有较好的预测性,在此领域有着良好的应用前景.

Financial Early-warning Analysis Based on Decision Tree

Effective financial failure prediction is important for banks,corporations and government organizations.this thesis takes Chinese listed companies as the sample.We have chosen 17 financial indexes which reflect listed companies' profit(ability,) debt paying ability,operation ability,growth ability and companies' scale,and establishes a financial early-warning system by decision tree modeling method which is different from traditional modeling methods.The result of the positive(research) indicated that this system was valid for financial failure prediction and it had a good application prospect in this(area.)