基于空间计量模型的消费水平时空变化及影响因素分析

扩大内需是维系经济平稳运行的重要举措.对2002年～2013年间江苏省区内消费差异的总体变化与时空演变特征进行分析，并采用空间面板计量模型诊断消费水平的主要影响因素，旨在为针对性提高区域消费水平提供政策依据.结果表明：1)2002年来区内消费差异基本稳定且趋于下降，但空间集聚分异格局加剧.2)区内消费水平呈南高北低抱团式发展，这种空间不均衡是区域自身与周围地区长期共同作用的结果.3)空间面板数据模型可有效解析各变量对消费的时空作用方向与影响大小.其中，固定资产投资、人均财政支出及外资利用显著有助于促进地区消费的提高；居民收入的提高有利于促进消费；而地区经济发展、公路货运量及第三产业占GDP比重对区域消费的影响显著为负；居民储蓄款及就业率在不同固定效应背景下对消费水平的影响方向不一.最后给出了一些对策建议.

The analysis of time-space evolution of consumption level and influencing factors based on spatial econometric model

Expanding domestic demand is an important way to maintain steady economic operation. This paper firstly calculates the regional consumption level difference and spatial autocorrelation between 2002 and 2013 in Jiangsu province， then， combing the method of markov chain and spatial panel statistical analysis to explore its time-space evolution pattern and its main influencing factors so as to provide the targeted policy to improve the overall level of consumption. The results show as follows. Firstly， the regional consumption level difference tends to decline and stable since 2002 years， however，the agglomeration differentiation pattern is increasingly obvious. Secondly， the consumption exhibits spatially north-south cluster pattern， which is the result of interaction between regional itself and its neighboring regions. Thirdly， with different spatial econometric model under the fixed effects， each variables' influencing direction and size on consumption level can effectively be found. Among them， The fixed assets investment， per capita fiscal expenditure， and foreign capital utilization level will help significantly promote the level of consumption； residents income rise contributes to raising consumption level； the highway freight volume， regional economy development and the third industry of GDP have an significantly negative effects on regional consumption level， while the employment rate and household saving have both negative and positive effect on regional consumption. Finally， some tips are given. all regions should maintain a rapid growth in the future， increasing rural fiscal expenditure， narrow the gap between urban and rural， turning more social welfare benefit to farmers； under the demand-orientation， to develop new services， to build a professional commodity transaction system； to raise workers' income and social security.