武汉市土地城镇化与人口城镇化协调性研究

以武汉市为研究对象，通过建立合理的指标体系，利用主成分分析法、协调发展模型以及回归分析模型评价2002年～2015年武汉市人口城镇化与土地城镇化的协调发展状况并预测二者2015年～2019年的协调发展状况.武汉市2002年～2015年人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数不断上升，经历了人口城镇化领先且差距先缩小后扩大、土地城镇化领先且差距扩大以及土地城镇化领先差距缩小3个阶段.人口城镇化与土地城镇化之间的协调性经历了从不协调阶段到协调发展阶段的转变.武汉城市圈，2008年金融危机、中国房地产市场的发展对于武汉城镇化发展产生重要影响.通过回归模型预测，2015年～2019年武汉市人口城镇化指数与土地城镇化指数将继续升高，但二者差距将缩小.

Study on coordinate development between population urbanization and land urbanization in Wuhan

Taking Wuhan as the study area， through establishing reasonable evaluating system of population urbanization and land urbanization， the coordination of the population urbanization and land urbanization in Wuhan during 2002～2015 is analyzed and predicted in the next five years， using principal component analysis， coordinated development model and regression analysis model. Research results are as follow. Population urbanization index and land urbanization index increases year by year during 2002～2015. The coordination between population urbanization and land urbanization has undergone a transition from the uncoordinated development stage to the coordinated development stage. The establishment of Wuhan Metropolitan Area， the financial crisis in 2008 and the development of China's real estate market have an important impact on the urbanization of Wuhan. Through the regression model， the population urbanization index and land urbanization index of Wuhan in 2015～2019 will continue to increase， and the gap between them will continue to narrow.