| 灰色系统理论在我国就业人数预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 罗明奇,王利红,马少仙. 灰色系统理论在我国就业人数预测中的应用[J]. 沈阳大学学报：自然科学版, 2010, 22(3): 108-110 |
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| 作者姓名： | 罗明奇 王利红 马少仙 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]西北民族大学计算机科学与信息工程学院,甘肃兰州730030 [2]兰州交通大学数理与软件工程学院,甘肃兰州730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 以我国1999—2006年的就业人数数据为依据,利用灰色系统理论原理,对我国就业人数的原始数据进行弱化处理,以减少冲击波对数据的影响。对弱化后的数据序列处理中引入多元统计思想,确定最终弱化的终止条件,然后以此弱化后的数据为基础建立灰色GM（1,1）微分模型dx（1）/dt-x（1）=38 164.384 6。根据灰色系统理论原理得知模型不具有很好的预测效果。探究了模型失效的缘由,提出了模型改进的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 弱化算子 就业人数 预测 |
Applied Research in Forecast Employment Population with Grey System Theory |
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| LUO Mingqi,WANG Lihong,MA Shaoxian. Applied Research in Forecast Employment Population with Grey System Theory[J]. Journal of Shenyang University, 2010, 22(3): 108-110 |
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| Authors: | LUO Mingqi WANG Lihong MA Shaoxian |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Computer Science and Information Engineering College,Northwest University for Nationalities,Lanzhou 730030,China;2.School of Mathematics,Physics and Software Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China) |
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| Abstract: | Taking the employment population data of 1999-2006 of China as the basis,using the principle of grey system theory,the employment population＇s primary data is weaken down,in order to reduce the influence of the shock-wave to the data.The multivariate statistical processing is introduced to the weakened data sequence,and the termination conditions of the final weakening are determined,then the gray GM（1,1） differential model dx（1）/dt-x（1）=38 164.384 6,the is established.According to the grey system theory,the model does not have a good prediction.The reasons for failure of the model are explored;recommendations for improving the model are put forward. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory weakening operator employment volume forecast |
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