基于蒙特卡洛方法求取故障导弹飞行落点概率方法研究

针对导弹飞行试验中发生故障时落点概率的求取问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛统计仿真的估计方法。该方法通过对导弹飞行过程中发生坠落故障模式的分析,确定每种模式情况下导弹落点的散布规律,并建立起落点预测仿真统计数学模型,可得到导弹落点概率密度分布矩阵的估计。采用对仿真落点精度控制和对导弹落点概率密度矩阵的数值积分,有效地提高了对落入任一区域概率的估计精度。给出了应用该方法的具体步骤,通过一示例数据的计算证明了该方法的有效性。

Researhes on probabilistic method of flight impact point for trouble missile with Monte Carlo method

In view of calculation problem of impact point probability for trouble missile, Monte Carle emulation statistics method is offered.The method defines dispersion regulation of missile impact point in some mode by means of analysing missile drop trouble mode.It sets up mathematical model of impact point prediction simulation statistics and can estimate probability density distribution matrix of missile impact piont and effectively improves estimated accuracy of missile dropping area.Specific steps of the method is given and effectiveness of the method is proved by calculation of certain data.