| 水利工程经济效益风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李国芳. 水利工程经济效益风险分析[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 1999, 27(5): 34-38 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李国芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源及环境学院,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 假设水利工程各项子效益和子费用服从正态分布，采用参数解析法和蒙特卡罗法求解水利工程经济效益指标净现值和效益费用比的概率分布。净现值和效益费用比的概率分布，可以提供除期望净现值和期望效益费用比之外的投资成功（或失败）率最大盈利额和最大亏损额等信息，有助于决策者作出更科学合理的决策。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济效益指标 风险分析 参数解析法 蒙特卡罗法 |
| 修稿时间： | 1998－09－10 |
Risk Analysis of Economic Benefits for Water Projects |
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| Li Guofang. Risk Analysis of Economic Benefits for Water Projects[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ), 1999, 27(5): 34-38 |
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| Authors: | Li Guofang |
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| Abstract: | On the assumption thatsubbenefits and subcosts of water projects obey normal distribution,the probabilitydistributions of economic benefit indices,such as net present value and benefit-costratio,are obtained by the analytical method and the Monte-Carlo method.Besides theexpectances of net present value and benefit-cost ratio,the probability distributions canoffer more information,such as the probability of success(or failure),the maximumbenefits,and the maximum deficits,which are helpful for reasonable decision-making. |
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| Keywords: | economic benefit indices risk analysis analytical method Monte Carlo method |
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