水利工程经济效益风险分析

假设水利工程各项子效益和子费用服从正态分布，采用参数解析法和蒙特卡罗法求解水利工程经济效益指标净现值和效益费用比的概率分布。净现值和效益费用比的概率分布，可以提供除期望净现值和期望效益费用比之外的投资成功（或失败）率最大盈利额和最大亏损额等信息，有助于决策者作出更科学合理的决策。

Risk Analysis of Economic Benefits for Water Projects

On the assumption that subbenefits and subcosts of water projects obey normal distribution,the probability distributions of economic benefit indices,such as net present value and benefit-cost ratio,are obtained by the analytical method and the Monte-Carlo method.Besides the expectances of net present value and benefit-cost ratio,the probability distributions can offer more information,such as the probability of success(or failure),the maximum benefits,and the maximum deficits,which are helpful for reasonable decision-making.