我国居民储蓄与 GDP增长关系的实证研究

对包括中国在内的亚洲国家经济增长奇迹的解释 , 一般都会认为是这些国家的高储蓄率造就了高经济增长率 , 在对 1978年以来中国经济运行的有关数据进行统计分析时发现储蓄率与中国 GDP增长之间不存在正相关关系 , 与 GDP增长同向变动的应是居民储蓄额 , 而要保证储蓄额与 GDP增长之间的正相关关系也需要满足一些特殊条件 : 居民收入必须不断增长 , 储蓄必须要能顺利转化为投资因此提出在政策上应谨慎看待我国居民储蓄与 GDP增长之间的正相关关系

An empirical analysis of China's resident saving and economic growth

The key reason of East Asia's faster economic growth is considered to be due to high domestic rate of saving. This paper analyses Chinese economic data of the period from 1978 up to now and finds out there are no positive correlative between resident rate of saving and GDP growth rate. In fact, resident savings increase with GDP growth. To maintain the positive correlation between saving and GDP growth must have some special conditions: resident income must increase continually and savings must be successfully transformed into investment. Hence, we must be cautious of the positive correlation between resident savings and GDP growth in policy.